The Most Likely Path Forward
Hey, Ross here! This chart reveals how the Volatility Index (VIX) typically behaves after a major spike—like the one we saw on Wednesday. Historically, the VIX tends to settle down in the days following such jumps, and a calmer VIX often signals better days for the markets. We saw this play out after the August 5 selloff, and it could happen again. No guarantees, of course—but the odds seem to favor us. I break it all down in today’s insight.
Did the Market Surprise You Yesterday?
Hey, Ross here! This is how the market reacted as soon as Powell started talking. His cautious tone about future rate adjustments—after already cutting rates by 1%—wasn’t what investors wanted to hear. The result? The worst selloff since August 5 and a major spike in the VIX. But let’s not forget what happened after that August panic: a swift V-shaped recovery. Is a repeat guaranteed? Of course not—but the odds still look favorable. The key takeaway from this volatility? I break it all down today.
What to Expect for “Fed Day”
Hey, Ross here! This chart breaks down how the S&P 500 typically reacts—both daily and in the final hour of trading—under different Fed chairs. Powell? So far, he holds the worst average, especially in that critical final hour on Fed day. If we see a dip later, it wouldn’t be surprising. But here’s the bigger picture: Powell’s record is skewed by one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles ever, and despite that, he’s overseen one of history’s strongest bull markets. What does this mean for us? I break it down today.
The Hidden Pullback & the Narrow Bull Market
Hey, Ross here! The Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) has been quietly pulling back this month, slipping below its 21-day moving average and nearing its 50-day. Most traders are missing this “hidden” pullback because they’re focused on market-cap weighted indexes, which are being propped up by the Magnificent 7 stocks. This divergence also explains why the Nasdaq closed higher last week. The real question is—how can we take advantage of this pullback? I break it all down in today’s Insight of the Day.
Have There Been “Too Many” Pullbacks?
Hey, Ross here! This chart highlights the number of 5% or greater pullbacks during past bull markets. The average bull market sees eight such pullbacks, but so far in this one, we’ve only experienced five. And that’s just counting the “deep” ones. The Equal-Weight S&P 500 pullback I mentioned yesterday? It’s barely over 3%. The takeaway? We’re not seeing “too many” pullbacks at all. The data is clear—stay in the game. I explain more in today’s Insight of the Day.
Don’t Miss This Hidden Market Divergence
Hey, Ross here! This chart tracks the net difference between 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE. While we’re still seeing more highs than lows, that gap is shrinking. Let me be clear—this isn’t a signal of an impending bear market. But it does indicate pullbacks in smaller, less-popular stocks. For traders like us, that’s an opportunity to scoop up the most explosive names at much better prices. I dive into the details in today’s Insight of the Day.
Sign of a Healthy Pullback (and Buying Opportunity)
Hey, Ross here! The chart above shows the RSP, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 Index. While the Magnificent Seven stocks are pushing the broader S&P 500 higher, the equal-weight version tells a different story. It just dipped below its 21-day moving average, signaling a potential pullback. This could be a prime buying opportunity that most investors haven’t noticed yet. I break down what this means for you in today’s Insight of the Day.
Another Pullback Buying Opportunity?
Hey, Ross here! The chart above shows the RSP, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 Index. While the Magnificent Seven stocks are pushing the broader S&P 500 higher, the equal-weight version tells a different story. It just dipped below its 21-day moving average, signaling a potential pullback. This could be a prime buying opportunity that most investors haven’t noticed yet. I break down what this means for you in today’s Insight of the Day.
This Underground Market is Buzzing with Opportunity
Hey, Ross here!
Options trading in the U.S. is skyrocketing, with average daily volume hitting record highs, as shown in this chart dating back to 2018. While this surge may tempt individual traders to chase riskier bets, it often comes at the expense of sound risk management. But here’s the kicker—there’s a silver lining to this story, one that smart traders can capitalize on. I break it all down in today’s Insight of the Day.
Individual Investors Played for Suckers Again?
Hey, Ross here! The latest AAII sentiment poll shows a dramatic flip in individual investor sentiment. Just weeks ago, bears outnumbered bulls in this bull market. Now? Bulls have surged back, and bearish sentiment has faded. This kind of back-and-forth is classic retail behavior—and it creates opportunities for savvy traders. In today’s Insight, I explain how to capitalize on this predictable sentiment swing.
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