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Small-Cap Summer Incoming?

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Last Wednesday, I shared a chart showing a bullish wedge pattern in the small-cap Russell 2000 and predicted a breakout. Well, look at what happened in the two trading days right after that. Small-caps are indeed breaking out, setting us up for a “small-cap summer.” If this plays out, it’s going to be hugely positive for us. I explain why in the Insight of the Day.

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What the Market Says About Rate Cuts

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. In their last monetary policy meeting, the Fed forecasted just one rate cut this year. Swap traders don’t believe them, pricing in two instead. After yesterday’s cooler-than-expected CPI report, those traders will likely be proven correct. Now is not the time to sit out of this bull market. But you should be mindful of how it may be shifting.

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Will This Bull Market End Soon? (What the Data Says)

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows how long past bull markets have lasted. Our current bull market is 21 months old, while the average bull market lasts 61 months. Although the 2020 bull market only lasted 21 months, that was an anomaly. There’s no guarantee, but the data suggests this bull market could continue for quite a while. I explain some key drivers in the Insight of the Day.

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Watch for This Potential Breakout

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows the small-cap Russell 2000 Index forming a classic bullish wedge pattern. If this pattern plays out, small-caps could soon break out, providing a solid base for the bull market to continue. So, keep an eye on this. But remember, the buyers are already here.

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The Key to Being Aggressive in This Bull Market

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which has been reliably negatively correlated with stock prices for the past couple of years. When yields rise, stocks go down, and when yields fall, stocks go up. Since mid-April, Treasury yields have been in a downward channel pattern. This signals that – at least in the near term – we should still be aggressive with our trading. If this trend reverses, we should be more cautious. As I explain in the Insight of the Day, selective aggression is key.

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Should You be Greedy or Fearful?

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s first chart is an indication of market momentum based on the 125-day moving average, one of the indicators in CNN’s Fear and Greed Index. Personally, I prefer using the 50 and 200-day moving averages, but even with those benchmarks, there’s no denying the S&P 500 has strong momentum. The second chart shows the percent of stocks at 52-week highs compared to 52-week lows. Right now, there are about as many highs as lows, which is typically not a sign of strength. One indicator shows Extreme Greed, another Extreme Fear. No wonder traders are worried. I explain what I think in the Insight of the Day.

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What’s Beneath the Hood of This Bull Market?

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows how various sectors – as measured by their respective ETFs – performed over the second quarter. As you can see, the divergence is still very much in play. Over half of the sectors posted negative returns for the quarter, even though the S&P 500 was up over 4%. Only three sectors outperformed the broad S&P 500 index: tech, utilities, and communication services. This divergence is likely to continue. What does that mean for us traders? I explain in today’s insight.

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The Biggest Market Danger Right Now?

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows the S&P 500 with Kolanovic’s previous predictions mapped out on the index. As you can clearly see, following his predictions would have been disastrous for your financial health. You would have bought in before big declines and sold before rapid surges, leading to severe underperformance. Don’t trust these Wall Street talking heads – use them instead.

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What the Market Has in Store for the Second Half

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows the S&P 500’s average monthly performance for the past 10 years. The S&P 500 has been up in July 90% of the time, with an average return of 3.1%. Is this a guarantee the market will go up in July? Of course not. But it does mean the odds are on our side. Make sure to take advantage of it.

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July Surge Incoming? (Actual Data)

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows the S&P 500’s average monthly performance for the past 10 years. The S&P 500 has been up in July 90% of the time, with an average return of 3.1%. Is this a guarantee the market will go up in July? Of course not. But it does mean the odds are on our side. Make sure to take advantage of it.

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