Actual Data vs. Recession Fears
Hey, Ross Givens here! Analysts just trimmed S&P 500 earnings estimates by 2.4% for Q2—more than usual, but not exactly doomsday stuff. We’re in the middle of a trade war, so some pullback makes sense. But here’s the kicker: earnings cuts like this didn’t stop the market from rallying in Q4 last year—or in 2023. Don’t buy the fear. I explain why the data tells a different story in today’s Insight.
Classic Bullish Pattern Forming
Hey, Ross Givens here! I’m seeing a textbook bull flag forming on the Nasdaq—and it’s showing up on the S&P 500 and other indexes too. If this pattern plays out like it has in the past, we could see a strong move higher. Of course, nothing’s guaranteed in this game… but price action like this stacks the odds in our favor. I break down what it means—and why now isn’t the time to sit on your hands.
Another Bullish Divergence
Hey, Ross Givens here! Even though the major indexes are still off their highs, something interesting is happening beneath the surface. The Advance-Decline line—a key measure of market breadth—just hit a new all-time high. That kind of strength under the hood tells me this market may be healthier than it looks. And when breadth rises while prices dip, that’s a bullish divergence I pay close attention to. I break it down in today’s Insight.
This Doesn’t Happen in a Recession
Hey, Ross Givens here! Stocks finally broke their 9-day win streak yesterday—and while that might seem like a setback, history tells a different story. Since 1928, we’ve only seen 29 of these streaks, and just three happened during a recession. That kind of price action doesn’t line up with the doom-and-gloom headlines. In today’s Insight, I explain why I’m paying more attention to the market’s behavior than the media chatter.
Market Breadth Just Broke Out
Hey, Ross Givens here! We just saw a major shift in market breadth. Last week started with only 30% of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages—but by Friday, that number jumped past 40%. That’s a strong, bullish signal and puts us right back at levels we last saw in February. In today’s Insight, I break down what this breakout means—and how I’m thinking about it from here.
These Investors Missed the Boat
Hey, Ross Givens here! This week’s AAII sentiment survey shows something wild—retail investors have grown more bearish even as the market posted a week-long win streak. It’s a classic case of emotional investing, and this chart gives us a front-row seat to how so many end up missing the boat. I break down why this matters—and the key takeaway for smart traders—in today’s Insight.
The Market Scorecard for April
Hey, Ross Givens here! The Nasdaq has clawed its way back from a 12% drop post–Liberation Day to now trading nearly 1% above its March close. It’s also reclaimed key short-term levels and breadth is improving fast. That tells me this recovery has real strength—and the worst may be behind us. But with that optimism comes a key warning I don’t want you to miss. I explain more in today’s Insight.
Skeptical of the Market Recovery?
Hey, Ross Givens here! Nearly half of consumers now expect stock prices to be lower a year from now—the highest level of pessimism since 2011. But I see this kind of extreme bearish sentiment as a bullish signal. Retail investors tend to get it wrong at major turning points, and this data tells me we may have already seen the bottom. In today’s Insight, I break down why this matters—and how I’m thinking about the path forward.
Buyers Prepared to Step In
Hey, Ross Givens here! Yesterday’s market action gave us exactly the kind of signal I want to see in a true recovery. After a strong open and sharp selloff that pushed the S&P 500 below the key 5,500 level, buyers stepped in and drove the index back above it by the close. That tells me there’s real support underneath this market. In today’s Insight, I break down what this means—and how I’m positioning around it.
Back to Buying Season
Hey, Ross Givens here! Last week, the NYSE triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust—a rare signal that historically points to strong market rallies ahead. We’re also finally seeing the first signs of net new highs since February, which adds even more weight to the bullish case. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, especially with political uncertainty still swirling. But from a breadth perspective, I like what I’m seeing. In today’s Insight, I break down where we are in the buying cycle—and how I’m approaching it.
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