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Actual Data vs. Recession Fears

Hey, Ross here:

Even as President Trump looks to announce a slew of trade deals…

Sentiment remains depressed, with the clickbait media constantly stoking fears about a potential recession.

So, instead of relying on the headlines…

Let’s look at what the “on the ground” analysts are saying.

Chart of the Day

Source: FactSet

This chart shows the level of adjustment analysts are making to earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies.

For the second quarter – which we are still in the middle of – they are making an average 2.4% cut to previous earnings estimates.

As the chart shows, that’s definitely higher compared to previous quarters.

And it’s expected considering we’re in the middle of a trade war.

But a 2.4% cut is nothing drastic – certainly far off from all the fear-mongering claims of tariffs wrecking businesses and the economy.

Plus, just because earnings are falling doesn’t mean stocks are too.

They made a 2% cut for the fourth quarter last year – and the stock market had one of the strongest quarters of the year.

The same thing happened in the fourth quarter of 2023. A 3.9% cut to earnings estimates – and yet, a blistering market rally.

Pay less attention to the headlines and more attention to the data.

Insight of the Day

The biggest advantage you can have in the markets is superior information

In a world where most people don’t bother to do more than scan headlines, those who are willing to do the work to dive deeper command a major advantage.

That’s my goal for this newsletter…

To help you look beyond the clickbait headlines and expose what’s really going on beneath the surface of the market…

So you can make better and more informed decisions with your trades.

Because in this game, the biggest edge you can have is superior information.

That’s why I built my longest-running and most consistent trading strategy all around this principle.

It involves following a group of traders who have access to information even the best analysts cannot hope to have.

And tomorrow, Saturday morning at 11 a.m. Eastern…

I’m going LIVE for a special weekend session to show you how to use this strategy for yourself.

This strategy could have delivered gains as high as 1,787%…

And just this month, it could have handed you a 22% gain in just over a week (or an over 90% gain if you had taken the options).

That’s how powerful it is.

I’ll show you exactly how it works and how to use it for yourself tomorrow morning – as well as several opportunities it’s alerting me to right now.

So click here to register for my special weekend session…

Block off your calendar…

And I’ll see you Saturday morning at 11 a.m. ET.

Customer Story of the Day

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Ross is so amazing with his ability to explain everything in layman’s terms and using basic and understandable references, helping make all of his lessons, tips and tricks just click! He’s even funny to boot, making learning about stock trading actually fun! 

I honestly look forward to the weekly Zooms w/ him and can say that those “classes” alone are worth their weight in gold! He never makes you feel like your question is stupid and the fact that he literally gets to everyone’s questions and comments in the chat is amazing. 

I feel 110% more confident w/ my stock moves b/c of my newly learned technical analyzing methods. No more guessing what to do. Only strategic, calculated moves and I would have never gotten to this point without Ross and TA!

The next time they have openings to join the group and you’re looking to learn as a beginner or advance your knowledge on trading stocks, don’t think twice! You’ll definitely regret it if you do.”

Embrace the surge,

Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily

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