Stock Market

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Here’s the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average over the past year. Here’s the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. Since the beginning of this month, the percentages of stocks trading above their 200 and 50-day moving averages have spiked. This means participation in this bull market has been sharply increasing – we’re no longer in a narrow bull market. This expanding base will provide the foundation for the bull market to keep chugging on. But what’s causing this expansion in breadth? And how can we take advantage of it? I’ll explain more in the Insight of the Day.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. The five major Wall Street banks made nearly $15 billion in stock trading profits in the second quarter – 18% higher than last year. As a former VP at one of these banks, this doesn’t surprise me. They have the capital to move markets with their trades, leveraging not just their own money but also influencing their top clients’ trades. It’s not an even playing field, but knowing how the game is played can work to our advantage.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. As of last week, markets were pricing in two 0.25% rate cuts by the Fed by year-end. Now, they’re expecting nearly three. Since the Fed moves rates by at least 0.25%, this means the market anticipates either a 0.50% or 0.75% cut. This expectation of higher rate cuts is a good sign. But as I explain in the Insight of the Day, you don’t want to wait for the rate cuts to happen.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. On June 24, I posted a chart of the Equal-Weight S&P 500 index, highlighting a bullish wedge pattern that could signal a strong breakout. It took a few weeks, but the index broke out last week. Along with the small-cap breakout, it looks like participation in this bull market is steadily widening. This provides the necessary foundation for it to continue for potentially many months longer. Don’t sit this one out.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Last Wednesday, I shared a chart showing a bullish wedge pattern in the small-cap Russell 2000 and predicted a breakout. Well, look at what happened in the two trading days right after that. Small-caps are indeed breaking out, setting us up for a “small-cap summer.” If this plays out, it’s going to be hugely positive for us. I explain why in the Insight of the Day.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. In their last monetary policy meeting, the Fed forecasted just one rate cut this year. Swap traders don’t believe them, pricing in two instead. After yesterday’s cooler-than-expected CPI report, those traders will likely be proven correct. Now is not the time to sit out of this bull market. But you should be mindful of how it may be shifting.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows how long past bull markets have lasted. Our current bull market is 21 months old, while the average bull market lasts 61 months. Although the 2020 bull market only lasted 21 months, that was an anomaly. There’s no guarantee, but the data suggests this bull market could continue for quite a while. I explain some key drivers in the Insight of the Day.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows the small-cap Russell 2000 Index forming a classic bullish wedge pattern. If this pattern plays out, small-caps could soon break out, providing a solid base for the bull market to continue. So, keep an eye on this. But remember, the buyers are already here.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s chart shows the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which has been reliably negatively correlated with stock prices for the past couple of years. When yields rise, stocks go down, and when yields fall, stocks go up. Since mid-April, Treasury yields have been in a downward channel pattern. This signals that – at least in the near term – we should still be aggressive with our trading. If this trend reverses, we should be more cautious. As I explain in the Insight of the Day, selective aggression is key.

Hey, it’s Ross Givens here with the Chart of the Day. Today’s first chart is an indication of market momentum based on the 125-day moving average, one of the indicators in CNN’s Fear and Greed Index. Personally, I prefer using the 50 and 200-day moving averages, but even with those benchmarks, there’s no denying the S&P 500 has strong momentum. The second chart shows the percent of stocks at 52-week highs compared to 52-week lows. Right now, there are about as many highs as lows, which is typically not a sign of strength. One indicator shows Extreme Greed, another Extreme Fear. No wonder traders are worried. I explain what I think in the Insight of the Day.