The Formula for Trading Success in 2025

2024 may have ended on a weak note, but 2025 holds the potential for something extraordinary. Could the markets deliver another 20%+ gain this year? The historical performance of the S&P 500 offers some surprising insights—20% gains aren’t as rare as you might think. But here’s the real takeaway: market strength isn’t the only key to success. By combining proven strategies with unique opportunities, like the regulatory shakeups expected under Trump’s leadership, 2025 could become your best trading year yet—regardless of broader market trends.

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Will This Bearish Pattern Fail?

Hey, Ross here! The Equal-Weight S&P 500 Index (RSP) just posted a bullish engulfing candle the day after Fed Day, joined by similar patterns in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. This means the bears started strong, but the bulls completely took over by day’s end—a powerful signal of momentum. Even better, the follow-up price action confirmed the pattern, and this wasn’t just driven by the Magnificent 7—it was broad-based. Plus, key support levels held firm in the S&P 500. These signs all point to healthy price action. I break it down further in today’s Insight of the Day.

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What the Latest Price Action Tells Me

Hey, Ross here! The Equal-Weight S&P 500 Index (RSP) just posted a bullish engulfing candle the day after Fed Day, joined by similar patterns in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. This means the bears started strong, but the bulls completely took over by day’s end—a powerful signal of momentum. Even better, the follow-up price action confirmed the pattern, and this wasn’t just driven by the Magnificent 7—it was broad-based. Plus, key support levels held firm in the S&P 500. These signs all point to healthy price action. I break it down further in today’s Insight of the Day.

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Use Seasonality to Your Advantage

Hey, Ross here! The Equal-Weight S&P 500 Index (RSP) just posted a bullish engulfing candle the day after Fed Day, joined by similar patterns in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. This means the bears started strong, but the bulls completely took over by day’s end—a powerful signal of momentum. Even better, the follow-up price action confirmed the pattern, and this wasn’t just driven by the Magnificent 7—it was broad-based. Plus, key support levels held firm in the S&P 500. These signs all point to healthy price action. I break it down further in today’s Insight of the Day.

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The Most Likely Path Forward

Hey, Ross here! This chart reveals how the Volatility Index (VIX) typically behaves after a major spike—like the one we saw on Wednesday. Historically, the VIX tends to settle down in the days following such jumps, and a calmer VIX often signals better days for the markets. We saw this play out after the August 5 selloff, and it could happen again. No guarantees, of course—but the odds seem to favor us. I break it all down in today’s insight.

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Did the Market Surprise You Yesterday?

Hey, Ross here! This is how the market reacted as soon as Powell started talking. His cautious tone about future rate adjustments—after already cutting rates by 1%—wasn’t what investors wanted to hear. The result? The worst selloff since August 5 and a major spike in the VIX. But let’s not forget what happened after that August panic: a swift V-shaped recovery. Is a repeat guaranteed? Of course not—but the odds still look favorable. The key takeaway from this volatility? I break it all down today.

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What to Expect for “Fed Day”

Hey, Ross here! This chart breaks down how the S&P 500 typically reacts—both daily and in the final hour of trading—under different Fed chairs. Powell? So far, he holds the worst average, especially in that critical final hour on Fed day. If we see a dip later, it wouldn’t be surprising. But here’s the bigger picture: Powell’s record is skewed by one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles ever, and despite that, he’s overseen one of history’s strongest bull markets. What does this mean for us? I break it down today.

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The Hidden Pullback & the Narrow Bull Market

Hey, Ross here! The Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) has been quietly pulling back this month, slipping below its 21-day moving average and nearing its 50-day. Most traders are missing this “hidden” pullback because they’re focused on market-cap weighted indexes, which are being propped up by the Magnificent 7 stocks. This divergence also explains why the Nasdaq closed higher last week. The real question is—how can we take advantage of this pullback? I break it all down in today’s Insight of the Day.

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Have There Been “Too Many” Pullbacks?

Hey, Ross here! This chart highlights the number of 5% or greater pullbacks during past bull markets. The average bull market sees eight such pullbacks, but so far in this one, we’ve only experienced five. And that’s just counting the “deep” ones. The Equal-Weight S&P 500 pullback I mentioned yesterday? It’s barely over 3%. The takeaway? We’re not seeing “too many” pullbacks at all. The data is clear—stay in the game. I explain more in today’s Insight of the Day.

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Don’t Miss This Hidden Market Divergence

Hey, Ross here! This chart tracks the net difference between 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE. While we’re still seeing more highs than lows, that gap is shrinking. Let me be clear—this isn’t a signal of an impending bear market. But it does indicate pullbacks in smaller, less-popular stocks. For traders like us, that’s an opportunity to scoop up the most explosive names at much better prices. I dive into the details in today’s Insight of the Day.

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