Archives

Back Above the 200

Hey, Ross Givens here! After the China trade deal announcement, markets gapped up and closed strong—pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back above their 200-day moving averages. That’s a big deal. As Paul Tudor Jones once said, “nothing good happens below the 200-day.” We haven’t seen this kind of strength since March. If we can hold above this line, even without new highs, the setup looks very constructive. I break it all down in today’s Insight.

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Everything is Trending Nicely (But Don’t Wait)

Hey, Ross Givens here! I look at today’s chart as a market breadth scorecard—tracking how many stocks sit above key moving averages. Short and medium-term trends look strong right now. Sure, long-term breadth still has work to do… but if you wait for everything to look perfect, you’ll likely miss the biggest upside. I explain why acting early matters in today’s Insight.

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Actual Data vs. Recession Fears

Hey, Ross Givens here! Analysts just trimmed S&P 500 earnings estimates by 2.4% for Q2—more than usual, but not exactly doomsday stuff. We’re in the middle of a trade war, so some pullback makes sense. But here’s the kicker: earnings cuts like this didn’t stop the market from rallying in Q4 last year—or in 2023. Don’t buy the fear. I explain why the data tells a different story in today’s Insight.

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Classic Bullish Pattern Forming

Hey, Ross Givens here! I’m seeing a textbook bull flag forming on the Nasdaq—and it’s showing up on the S&P 500 and other indexes too. If this pattern plays out like it has in the past, we could see a strong move higher. Of course, nothing’s guaranteed in this game… but price action like this stacks the odds in our favor. I break down what it means—and why now isn’t the time to sit on your hands.

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Another Bullish Divergence

Hey, Ross Givens here! Even though the major indexes are still off their highs, something interesting is happening beneath the surface. The Advance-Decline line—a key measure of market breadth—just hit a new all-time high. That kind of strength under the hood tells me this market may be healthier than it looks. And when breadth rises while prices dip, that’s a bullish divergence I pay close attention to. I break it down in today’s Insight.

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This Doesn’t Happen in a Recession

Hey, Ross Givens here! Stocks finally broke their 9-day win streak yesterday—and while that might seem like a setback, history tells a different story. Since 1928, we’ve only seen 29 of these streaks, and just three happened during a recession. That kind of price action doesn’t line up with the doom-and-gloom headlines. In today’s Insight, I explain why I’m paying more attention to the market’s behavior than the media chatter.

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Market Breadth Just Broke Out

Hey, Ross Givens here! We just saw a major shift in market breadth. Last week started with only 30% of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages—but by Friday, that number jumped past 40%. That’s a strong, bullish signal and puts us right back at levels we last saw in February. In today’s Insight, I break down what this breakout means—and how I’m thinking about it from here.

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These Investors Missed the Boat

Hey, Ross Givens here! This week’s AAII sentiment survey shows something wild—retail investors have grown more bearish even as the market posted a week-long win streak. It’s a classic case of emotional investing, and this chart gives us a front-row seat to how so many end up missing the boat. I break down why this matters—and the key takeaway for smart traders—in today’s Insight.

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The Market Scorecard for April

Hey, Ross Givens here! The Nasdaq has clawed its way back from a 12% drop post–Liberation Day to now trading nearly 1% above its March close. It’s also reclaimed key short-term levels and breadth is improving fast. That tells me this recovery has real strength—and the worst may be behind us. But with that optimism comes a key warning I don’t want you to miss. I explain more in today’s Insight.

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Skeptical of the Market Recovery?

Hey, Ross Givens here! Nearly half of consumers now expect stock prices to be lower a year from now—the highest level of pessimism since 2011. But I see this kind of extreme bearish sentiment as a bullish signal. Retail investors tend to get it wrong at major turning points, and this data tells me we may have already seen the bottom. In today’s Insight, I break down why this matters—and how I’m thinking about the path forward.

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