Back Above the 200
Hey, Ross Givens here! After the China trade deal announcement, markets gapped up and closed strong—pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back above their 200-day moving averages. That’s a big deal. As Paul Tudor Jones once said, “nothing good happens below the 200-day.” We haven’t seen this kind of strength since March. If we can hold above this line, even without new highs, the setup looks very constructive. I break it all down in today’s Insight.
Everything is Trending Nicely (But Don’t Wait)
Hey, Ross Givens here! I look at today’s chart as a market breadth scorecard—tracking how many stocks sit above key moving averages. Short and medium-term trends look strong right now. Sure, long-term breadth still has work to do… but if you wait for everything to look perfect, you’ll likely miss the biggest upside. I explain why acting early matters in today’s Insight.
Actual Data vs. Recession Fears
Hey, Ross Givens here! Analysts just trimmed S&P 500 earnings estimates by 2.4% for Q2—more than usual, but not exactly doomsday stuff. We’re in the middle of a trade war, so some pullback makes sense. But here’s the kicker: earnings cuts like this didn’t stop the market from rallying in Q4 last year—or in 2023. Don’t buy the fear. I explain why the data tells a different story in today’s Insight.
Classic Bullish Pattern Forming
Hey, Ross Givens here! I’m seeing a textbook bull flag forming on the Nasdaq—and it’s showing up on the S&P 500 and other indexes too. If this pattern plays out like it has in the past, we could see a strong move higher. Of course, nothing’s guaranteed in this game… but price action like this stacks the odds in our favor. I break down what it means—and why now isn’t the time to sit on your hands.
Another Bullish Divergence
Hey, Ross Givens here! Even though the major indexes are still off their highs, something interesting is happening beneath the surface. The Advance-Decline line—a key measure of market breadth—just hit a new all-time high. That kind of strength under the hood tells me this market may be healthier than it looks. And when breadth rises while prices dip, that’s a bullish divergence I pay close attention to. I break it down in today’s Insight.
This Doesn’t Happen in a Recession
Hey, Ross Givens here! Stocks finally broke their 9-day win streak yesterday—and while that might seem like a setback, history tells a different story. Since 1928, we’ve only seen 29 of these streaks, and just three happened during a recession. That kind of price action doesn’t line up with the doom-and-gloom headlines. In today’s Insight, I explain why I’m paying more attention to the market’s behavior than the media chatter.
Market Breadth Just Broke Out
Hey, Ross Givens here! We just saw a major shift in market breadth. Last week started with only 30% of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages—but by Friday, that number jumped past 40%. That’s a strong, bullish signal and puts us right back at levels we last saw in February. In today’s Insight, I break down what this breakout means—and how I’m thinking about it from here.
These Investors Missed the Boat
Hey, Ross Givens here! This week’s AAII sentiment survey shows something wild—retail investors have grown more bearish even as the market posted a week-long win streak. It’s a classic case of emotional investing, and this chart gives us a front-row seat to how so many end up missing the boat. I break down why this matters—and the key takeaway for smart traders—in today’s Insight.
The Market Scorecard for April
Hey, Ross Givens here! The Nasdaq has clawed its way back from a 12% drop post–Liberation Day to now trading nearly 1% above its March close. It’s also reclaimed key short-term levels and breadth is improving fast. That tells me this recovery has real strength—and the worst may be behind us. But with that optimism comes a key warning I don’t want you to miss. I explain more in today’s Insight.
Skeptical of the Market Recovery?
Hey, Ross Givens here! Nearly half of consumers now expect stock prices to be lower a year from now—the highest level of pessimism since 2011. But I see this kind of extreme bearish sentiment as a bullish signal. Retail investors tend to get it wrong at major turning points, and this data tells me we may have already seen the bottom. In today’s Insight, I break down why this matters—and how I’m thinking about the path forward.
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