Hey, Ross here:
Welcome back to a shortened trading week.
Markets have been choppy most of December…
But since Thursday, things appear to have taken a turn for the better.
And as today’s chart shows – that’s perfectly in line with history.
Chart of the Day
This chart shows how the average December has performed for the S&P 500 versus the current month.
While it’s far from perfect, we seem to be matching the historical S&P 500 performance this month – at least in terms of trend.
And if this seasonality effect holds…
We should be entering the end-of-year “Santa Claus rally” period starting Wednesday…
A 7-day period (5 trading days) where stocks have been higher nearly 80% of the time.
But while the seasonality picture is encouraging, here’s something that’s even more so.
Take a look at this chart.
This chart shows the Nasdaq 100 in blue and an inverted measure of interest rate volatility in black.
Because it’s inverted, when the black line moves higher, interest rate volatility is actually lower – and when it moves lower, volatility is higher.
As the chart shows, when interest rate volatility falls, stocks tend to move higher.
And when interest rate volatility rises, stocks tend to struggle.
If you look to the right side of the chart, you can see the black line has moved sharply higher – meaning interest rate volatility has dropped to new cycle lows.
That makes sense.
With cooler inflation readings and a rising unemployment rate, there’s now much greater clarity about where interest rates are headed – likely lower next year.
And when rates become more predictable, volatility falls.
Based on past moves, that means stocks will likely soon catch up and move further upward as well.
Basically, things are looking up for the rest of the year – and into 2026.
You don’t want to be on the sidelines.
And yet, many people still will be. I explain why below.
Insight of the Day
This bullish backdrop for stocks is occurring amid an extremely high degree of economic uncertainty.
Add continued above-average earnings growth to the above mix…
And we have a nice bullish backdrop for stocks – one that will benefit asset owners.
But just because things are looking good for stocks…
Does NOT mean people will feel good about the economy.
Look at the unemployment and consumer sentiment numbers.
The media has coined the term “vibecession” to describe how the average American feels about the uncertain nature of the economy – despite the stock market’s performance.
I expect the “vibecession” to continue…
And while you, as a reader of this newsletter, know better…
Most people will allow this “vibecession” to affect their investing decisions – keeping too many of them on the sidelines.
But while that’s not good for them…
It’s can be good for you…
Because as stocks keep rising, we’ll see these people “FOMO” in at the highs – helping drive the price of stocks even higher.
Of course, to seize this opportunity…
You need to position yourself now – when stocks are still trading below previous highs…
And before the masses catch on to just how bullish the environment for stocks actually is.
Every week, me and my team go LIVE to break down the markets in real time and spotlight the unnoticed opportunities.
And as part of our Christmas special…
You can get one full year of access to these weekly live sessions for just 99 CENTS.
That’s not a typo. It’s maximum value for a negligible cost.
And it will put you ahead of 99% of other traders out there.
So don’t miss it…
Click here to take advantage of this 99-cent deal while you still can.
Customer Story of the Day
“I recently attended my first Ross Givens live session, it was very educational.
He encouraged questions and shared valuable insights that I applied immediately.
He has a deep understanding of the stock market and explained his analytical methods in a way that was easy to grasp, even for beginners.
All of his trading strategies were presented with real-world current examples.
I walked away much more confident in my ability to analyze stocks and make informed investment decisions.
Highly recommended!”
Embrace the surge,
Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily
