Today is my birthday.
In my younger years, my birthday plans usually included a night out on the town with friends…
A few drinks at the bar… Then maybe a few more!
But these days, I’m a married man.
I’m no longer much for gifts or celebrations.
I’ll probably spend the evening with my wife just relaxing and having a nice birthday dinner.
But there is one thing I want this year…
I couldn’t ask for a better present than a fat, juicy, breakout trade!
It’s always nice to see your account value rise…
Especially in a market like this.
Although it’s not that I care so much about the potential profits.
What I really want is to see all of the work I put into my fundamental and technical analysis pay off in a surging stock.
So, if the stock gods are listening, here’s what I’d like…
A Breakout in the Making
This setup worked beautifully last May, as you can see in the daily chart below.
Daily Chart of A-Mark Precious Metals (AMRK) 2020-2021 — Source: TC2000
Back then, the stock was forming a shallow saucer pattern that tightened from left to right.
This created a tight pivot level on the right side where the stock could launch from.
Sure enough, AMRK shot up 42% in just eight days after it hit that buy point.
Now, fast-forward to today…
Current Daily Chart of A-Mark Precious Metals (AMRK) — Source: TC2000
The stock is showing an almost identical saucer formation (forgive my MS Paint skills), with a buy point at the $78 level.
Dips are becoming more and more shallow, from -33% at the start of the year to -16% in February to the latest dip of -9%.
But to make the setup picture perfect, I would like to see price tighten a bit more over the next one to two weeks.
If it can fill in that wedge on the right side then breakout, I would definitely take a stab at this one.
Risk is under 10%, and resistance is clearly defined.
Expectations on the Rise
Additionally, analyst expectations are improving for the company – one of the signs I look for in potential big movers.
A-Mark Precious Metals (AMRK) Analyst Expectations — Source: MarketWatch
The figure above shows earnings expectations for AMRK three months ago, one month ago as well as the current estimates.
As you can see, these estimates are being revised upward, which is generally a bullish sign, since the company may be doing much better than the market had previously anticipated.
No, as I alluded to above, this is an ugly market. Breakouts are fairly hard to come by.
So, anything could happen.
But if AMRK firms up, I’m ready to throw a few bucks at it so see if the stock has legs.
I’ll be following up on this stock in future articles, so stay tuned to see how this idea plays out.
Embrace the surge,
Editor, Stock Surge Daily