Hey, Ross here:
Today could be a big one.
The Fed announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. Eastern…
And Wall Street has already made up its mind about what happens next.
Take a look:
Chart of the Day
Almost every major bank on this list expects a rate hike today.
And most don’t think the Fed stops there.
Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC are looking for as much as 75 basis points of tightening in 2026.
A whole pile of others expect another 50 basis points.
So the message from Wall Street is pretty clear:
Higher for longer.
And the Fed still has room to squeeze.
This is the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index.
The lower it goes, the looser financial conditions are.
Right now it’s sitting around -0.56.
In other words, despite all the talk about tight money, financial conditions are still pretty loose.
That gives the Fed less reason to back off quickly.
And you can already see some strain underneath the market.
This is the Value Line Geometric Index, which gives us a much better look at how the median stock is doing.
It just pushed all the way back to the same area that stopped it in 2021…
And got rejected again.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is miles above where it traded back then.
Think about that.
The headline index has marched higher for years…
While the median stock has spent nearly five years trying to get through the same ceiling.
And traders are positioning accordingly.
Speculators are modestly net short U.S. equities overall.
But look at the spread underneath.
Nasdaq-100 positioning is still net long.
Russell 2000 positioning is nearly 20% net short.
That’s a monster gap.
The market isn’t simply bearish.
Traders have decided which stocks they think are going to get hit hardest.
And that’s where things can get fun – and lucrative.
Insight of the Day
The harder the market leans one way, the more explosive the exception can be.
Small caps are getting shorted hard.
The median stock just failed at major resistance.
And Wall Street expects the Fed to keep tightening.
There’s your bearish case.
Now imagine a stock sitting right in the middle of all that suddenly blows through resistance anyway.
That grabs my attention.
Because now the stock is doing something it shouldn’t be doing.
Buyers are overpowering a lousy backdrop.
Momentum starts building.
And if the stock is heavily shorted, a breakout can force bearish traders to start buying shares back…
Adding even more fuel to the move.
That’s how breakouts can go from normal to violent.
That’s why later today at 3 p.m. Eastern…
Just one hour after the Fed announcement…
I’m sitting down for a LIVE post-Fed strategy session where I’ll break down the market’s reaction…
Then I’ll show you the chart pattern I use to hunt for stocks that can break away from the broader market – even when the backdrop looks ugly.
It’s the same pattern that showed up before Rhythm Pharmaceuticals surged 163% in seven weeks… Nine Energy Service climbed 270% in 10 weeks… and Iris Energy exploded 148% in just two days.
I’ll also show you the new stocks going onto my watchlist…
And walk you through exactly where I’d buy, what profit I’d target, and where I’d get out if the trade turns against me.
And I’ll see you at 3 p.m. ET.
P.S. If you’re planning to attend on a mobile device, make sure you download the presentation app now so you don’t miss anything when it starts. See you there.
iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/goto/id1465614785
Android: https://play.google.com/store/search?q=goto&c=apps
Customer Story of the Day
“Ross Givens & Traders Agency have helped me learn & identify market patterns with analysis as to WHEN and how to properly enter and exit trades, with profit!
It’s been 6 months so far, and the education has been excellent, with the profitable trades following!”
Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily
