Hey, Ross here:
The market has been pretty choppy lately.
But while stocks bounce around from one headline to the next…
There’s one pattern in the data that keeps showing up.
And it says Wall Street has been setting the bar too low.
Take a look:
Chart of the Day
This is Citi’s U.S. Economic Surprise Index.
It compares incoming economic data with what economists expected beforehand.
Above zero means the numbers are coming in better than forecast.
Below zero means they’re disappointing.
The index has cooled from its recent peak…
But it’s still sitting comfortably in positive territory at around 22.7.
So even after all the recession worries, debt headlines and general hand-wringing…
The U.S. economy is still doing a little better than economists expected.
And when you move from the economy to corporate earnings, the miss gets much bigger.
Normally, Wall Street starts the year optimistic.
Then reality sets in.
Analysts gradually trim their earnings estimates as the months go by.
You can see that in the light-blue line, which shows the average pattern over the past three years.
This year has gone the opposite way.
S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026 have climbed roughly 15% since the start of the year.
Instead of cutting numbers…
Analysts have spent the year raising them.
So we’ve got the same basic story showing up in two different places:
The economy has been stronger than expected.
And corporate profits have been stronger than expected too.
That leads to one of the most important things to understand about big stock moves.
I explain below.
Insight of the Day
The biggest moves happen when reality breaks away from expectations
Stocks don’t move on whether the news is “good” or “bad.”
They move on whether the news is better or worse than people were ready for.
That’s why a mediocre company can explode higher after earnings…
While a great company gets hammered after posting another record quarter.
The difference is the bar Wall Street had already set.
And the bigger the gap between that bar and what actually happens, the more violent the adjustment can be.
That’s what I’m hunting for.
Not another company everybody already agrees is doing well.
I want the stock where Wall Street is still leaning one way…
While the business itself may be starting to go another.
Because when the market finally catches up, it can reprice the stock in a hurry.
The hard part is finding that gap before the surprise hits the tape.
And one of the best places I’ve found to look is inside the company itself.
Corporate insiders don’t have to guess whether orders are improving or customers are coming back.
They’re sitting inside the business watching it happen.
So when one of them starts buying stock with their own money while Wall Street still looks lukewarm…
That gets my attention fast.
But here’s the catch:
Most insider buying is useless – and following them is actually a dangerous trap.
The real edge comes from knowing which purchases carry genuine conviction.
That’s why later this afternoon at 3 p.m. Eastern…
I’m going LIVE to show you exactly how I separate them.
I’ll break down where to find these trades…
The warning signs that tell me to stay away…
And 3 counterintuitive insider-buying signals I’ve tested over the years.
This strategy recently pointed us to two stocks that have more than doubled in just three months…
And it could have had you sitting on open gains like 797%… 273%… and even 1,447%.
Click here to lock in your free seat if you haven’t already…
And I’ll see you LIVE today at 3 p.m. ET.
P.S. If you’re planning to attend on a mobile device, make sure you download the presentation app now so you don’t miss anything when it starts. See you there.
iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/goto/id1465614785
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Customer Story of the Day
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Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily
